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* * 🏒  HOLIDAY TOURNAMENT GUIDE  🏒 * *

2/17/24

Playoff Seedings Explained

Recently a USHR subscriber wrote in inquiring about Choate’s puzzling placement in the current playoff seedings – “Is there a reason that Choate Girls Hockey is the only team not ranked properly in the playoff seedings?”. It’s an excellent question, and on the surface it does seem odd that such a strong team RPI-wise would find itself on the outside looking in with respect to gaining entry into the Elite 8.

Before we dive into the answer, first a bit of history. For much of its existence prep hockey playoff seedings were determined by committee; that is, at the end of the regular season coaches would gather and vote on which teams should make it into the playoffs.

On the boy’s side this all changed in 2010 with the invention of JSPR -- an algorithm similar to the NCAA pairwise ranking system – developed here at USHR by Taft and Carnegie Mellon alum Jeremy Philipson. Meanwhile on the girls side playoff seedings continued to be done by committee, until last season that is. As far as we’re aware no public announcement was ever made, so let this be one: NEPSGIHA now uses JSPR to determine their playoff seedings.

Of course, that doesn’t help those of you who don’t know what JSPR is, and why Choate, which we’ll get to, finds itself out of the Elite 8. So, without further ado, let’s dive in.

JSPR’s statistical foundation is based upon RPI (Ratings Percentage Index), which represents the strength of schedule of each participating NEPSGIHA team (including affiliate programs, e.g., The Hill School). It is both the starting point for Elite 8 eligibility, and the determining factor in small and large school playoff seedings, which, once the Elite 8 is determined, are based solely on RPI ranking.

RPI is calculated as follows: WP (Winning Percentage) + OWP (Opponents' Winning Percentage) + OOWP (Opponents' Opponents’ Winning Percentage). The winning percentage formula is wins plus ties (valued at half a win) divided by games played.

With the RPI calculations tallied, we then move on to JSPR, which consists of four criteria, the combination of which is used to determine which teams make it into the Elite 8, and, by extension, which teams “fall” into the small and large school playoff tournaments.

The four categories are as follows:

1. Head-to-head result(s), i.e., teams' records vs. each other on ice.

2. Comparing two teams' RPI, i.e., how they stand against all other NEPSGIHA teams. (This ensures that the RPI is still a critical component of the JSPR Rankings.)

3. Record against mutual opponents, i.e., how two teams fared when facing mutual opponents on the ice.

4. Record against Teams Under Consideration, i.e., how two teams fared vs. other top 16 teams (as determined by the RPI).

If Team A wins the comparisons over Team B they get one JSPR point. In the event of a comparison tie, the fall back is head-to-head results (if exist), followed by RPI. The eight teams with the most JSPR points at the end of the regular season form the Elite 8 (there too, in the event of a JSPR points tie, the tie breaker rules fall back to head-to-head results and finally RPI).

There’s more to it than that, subtleties such as what constitutes a valid NEPSGIHA game (e.g., prior to last season affiliate vs. affiliate results were excluded, but are now included) and rules surrounding overtime games during holiday tournaments, and how on earth the algorithm is implemented (recursion aplenty), but the above are the basics, and should give prep hockey fans deeper insight into why the playoff seedings are as they are.

Which brings us full circle, back to Choate. We now see that RPI is just one criteria in the JSPR comparison matrix. Due to their poor performance against TUCs the Boars are, well, in a bind. Projections indicate that somehow they need to claw back at least one JSPR point from the teams ahead of them. The only way that’s going to happen is if they win the common opponents comparison, the RPI comparison, and hope they haven’t played any of those teams head-to-head (since they have just two victories over the projected top 8 teams). They need some help, likely in the form of down-the-stretch face planting by one or more of Loomis, Deerfield, Tabor, and St. Paul’s, but statistically they’ve still got a shot.

Also in the mix, Groton, Westy and BB&N, but the hill may be steeper yet for them to climb. We’ll know more after today’s games.

Lastly, for those of you who are wondering where playoff seedings can be viewed, look under the “Playoffs” dropdown menu in the main navigation above. You can see current RPI, JSPR, and playoff seedings, along with their projected end-of-season equivalents under the above menu.

Good luck to all teams in the final week!

Sun. 2/18/24 -- Updated with Lakes Region, Vaillancourt, and EIL schedules for Saturday 2/24.
 

Girls' Prep Composite Schedule
Week of February 19, 2024

Monday, February 19, 2024
Hebron @ Austin Prep, 2:45 pm
Brewster Academy @ Holderness, 5:00 pm
Berwick @ Exeter, 5:00 pm
Canterbury @ Hotchkiss, 5:15 pm
Milton @ Cushing, 5:15 pm

Tuesday, February 20, 2024
No Games Scheduled

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Vaillancourt Conference Quarterfinals
#5 Kents Hill @ #4 Pomfret, 2:45 pm 
#6 Northfield Mt. Hermon @ #3 Worcester Academy, 4:00 pm
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Berkshire @ Taft, 2:30 pm
Deerfield @ Williston Northampton, 2:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Kent, 2:30 pm
Vermont Academy @ Brewster Academy, 2:30 pm
New Hampton @ Kimball Union, 3:00 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Andover, 3:00 pm
St. George's @ Tabor, 3:00 pm
Brooks @ St. Mark's, 3:15 pm
Southfield JV @ Dana Hall, 3:15 pm
Thayer @ Groton, 4:00 pm
Cushing @ Tilton, 4:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Canterbury, 4:00 pm
Newton Country Day @ Winsor, 4:15 pm
Middlesex @ BB&N, 4:30 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ Exeter, 4:30 pm
St. Paul's @ Proctor, 4:45 pm
Lawrenceville @ Westminster, 5:00 pm
Choate @ Hotchkiss, 5:00 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Governor's, 5:15 pm
Rivers @ Lawrence Academy, 6:00 pm

Thursday, February 22, 2024
No Games Scheduled

Friday, February 23, 2024

Lakes Region Tournament
Top Bracket:
#4 KUA @ #1 New Hampton, 4:30 pm
#3 Tilton @ #2 St. Paul's, 5:00 pm
Bottom Bracket:
#8 Proctor @ #5 Brewster, 3:00 pm
#7 Vermont @ #6 Holderness, 3:00 pm

Vaillancourt Conference Semifinals
#5 Kents Hill @ #1 NYA, 4:30 pm
#3 Worcester @ #2 Austin Prep, 3:45 pm

-----------------------------------------------
Southfield @ Rivers, 5:00 pm
Thayer @ BB&N, 5:00 pm
St Mark's JV @ Dana Hall, 5:00 pm
Steel City U19 @ The Hill School, 5:00 pm (Hill Invitational)

Saturday, February 24, 2024

Lakes Region Tournament
Top Bracket:
Championship: #2 St. Paul's @ #1 New Hampton, 3:30 pm -- now 2:00 pm
Consolation: #4 KUA@ #3 Tilton, 5:00 pm
Bottom Bracket:
Championship: #6 Holderness @ #5 Brewster, 12:00 pm
(There is no consolation game)

Vaillancourt Conference Championship
#2 Austin Prep @ #1 NYA, 4:00 pm

EIL Championship
Newton Country Day @ Portsmouth Abbey, 3:00 pm

-----------------------------------------------
Rome @ The Hill School, 10:00 am (Hill Invitational)
TBD @ The Hill School, TBD (Hill Invitational)
Middlesex @ St. George's, 11:00 am
Exeter @ Andover, 12:00 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Southfield, 1:00 pm
BB&N @ Williston Northampton, 1:30 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Milton, 2:00 pm
Cushing @ Choate, 2:00 pm
Brooks @ Governor's, 2:30 pm
Westminster @ Kent, 2:30 pm
Hoosac @ Millbrook, 3:00 pm
Tabor @ Berkshire, 4:00 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Deerfield, 4:00 pm
Groton @ St. Mark's, 4:00 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:30 pm
Taft @ Hotchkiss, 5:00 pm

Sun. 2/11/24

Girls' Prep Composite Schedule
Week of January 12, 2024

 

Monday, February 12, 2024
Vermont Academy @ Holderness, 4:45 pm
Westminster @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:45 pm
Berwick @ Exeter, 5:00 pm
Pomfret @ Taft, 5:15 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Greenwich Country Day, 5:30 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ Austin Prep, 6:00 pm

Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Friends Academy @ Rye Country Day, 4:15 pm
Winsor @ Pingree, 5:00 pm

Wednesday, February 24, 2024
Holderness @ Proctor, 2:00 pm
Kimball Union @ Tilton, 2:30 pm
Taft @ Westminster, 2:30 pm
Sacred Heart Greenwich @ Greenwich Country Day, 2:30 pm
Canterbury @ Millbrook, 2:45 pm
Groton @ Brooks, 3:00 pm
Cushing @ Deerfield, 3:00 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Pomfret, 3:00 pm
St. George's @ Milton, 3:00 pm
Exeter @ St. Paul's, 3:00 pm
Governor's @ Rivers, 3:15 pm
Andover @ Noble & Greenough, 3:15 pm
Milton J.V. @ Dana Hall, 3:15 pm
New Canaan HS @ Greenwich Academy, 3:30 pm
Choate @ Berkshire, 4:00 pm
Kent @ Hotchkiss, 4:00 pm
Middlesex @ Lawrence Academy, 4:00 pm
Worcester Academy @ Williston Northampton, 4:00 pm
Pingree @ Hebron, 4:00 pm
Brewster Academy @ Berwick, 4:15 pm
Hoosac @ Newton Country Day, 4:30 pm
New Hampton @ Southfield, 4:45 pm
Vermont Academy @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:45 pm
Lawrenceville @ Loomis Chaffee, 5:00 pm
Thayer @ St. Mark's, 5:00 pm
Tabor @ BB&N, 5:00 pm

Thursday, February 15, 2024
No games scheduled

Friday, February 16, 2024
Vermont Academy @ Kimball Union, 3:30 pm
Proctor @ New Hampton, 4:00 pm
Austin Prep JV @ Winsor, 4:15 pm
Dana Hall @ Rivers JV, 4:15 pm
Kents Hill @ North Yarmouth Academy, 4:45 pm
Newton Country Day @ Portsmouth Abbey, 5:00 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Thayer, 5:00 pm
Brooks @ Middlesex, 5:30 pm
Pingree @ Brewster Academy, 5:45 pm
Pomfret @ Austin Prep, 6:00 pm
St. Paul's @ Tilton, 6:00 pm
BB&N @ Lawrence Academy, 6:30 pm

Saturday, February 17, 2024
Southfield @ Cushing, 12:30 pm
Kents Hill @ Hebron, 1:00 pm
St. Mark's @ BB&N, 1:00 pm
Berkshire @ Westminster, 1:45 pm
Kimball Union @ Austin Prep, 2:00 pm
Holderness @ Middlesex, 2:00 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ Vermont Academy, 2:00 pm
Rivers @ Proctor, 2:00 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 2:00 pm
Tabor @ Noble & Greenough, 2:00 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Canterbury, 2:00 pm
Milton @ Brooks, 2:30 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Governor's, 2:30 pm
Choate @ Taft, 2:30 pm
Andover @ Worcester Academy, 2:30 pm
St. Paul's @ Exeter, 3:00 pm
Groton @ St. George's, 3:30 pm
New Hampton @ Brewster Academy, 4:15 pm
Hotchkiss @ Deerfield, 4:30 pm
Williston Northampton @ Loomis Chaffee, 4:30 pm
Lawrenceville @ Millbrook, 5:00 pm

Sunday, February 18, 2024
The Hill School @ Millbrook, 1:00 pm

Monday, February 19, 2024
Hebron @ Austin Prep, 2:45 pm
Brewster Academy @ Holderness, 5:00 pm
Canterbury @ Hotchkiss, 5:15 pm
Milton @ Cushing, 5:15 pm

Sun. 2/4/24

Girls' Prep Composite Schedule
Week of February 5, 2024

Monday, February 5, 2024
Hebron @ Newton Country Day, 4:15 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Portledge, 5:30 pm
Governor's @ BB&N, 5:30 pm

Tuesday, February 6, 2024
No games scheduled

Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Southfield @ North American Hockey Academy, 2:00 pm
Proctor @ Brewster Academy, 2:30 pm
Millbrook @ Frederick Gunn School, 2:30 pm
Austin Prep @ Andover, 3:00 pm
New Hampton @ St. Paul's, 3:00 pm
Tabor @ Middlesex, 3:15 pm
Berkshire @ Pomfret, 3:30 pm
Hoosac @ Rye Country Day, 3:30 pm
Kimball Union @ Exeter, 3:30 pm
Taft @ Greenwich Academy, 3:30 pm
Tilton @ Vermont Academy, 3:30 pm
Williston Northampton @ Choate, 3:30 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Hotchkiss, 3:30 pm
Governor's @ Thayer, 4:00 pm
St. George's @ BB&N, 4:15 pm
Fay School @ Winsor, 4:15 pm
Holderness @ Brooks, 4:30 pm
Deerfield @ Westminster, 4:30 pm
Kent @ Canterbury, 4:45 pm
Worcester Academy @ Rivers, 4:45 pm
Pingree @ North Yarmouth Academy, 4:45 pm
Dana Hall @ Nobles JV, 4:45 pm
Portledge @ Lawrenceville, 5:00 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Groton, 5:15 pm
St. Mark's @ Milton, 5:45 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Cushing, 6:30 pm

Thursday, February 8, 2024
No games scheduled

Friday, February 9, 2024
Hebron @ Kents Hill, 3:00 pm
Brewster Academy @ New Hampton, 4:15 pm
Pingree JV @ Dana Hall, 4:15 pm
Taft @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:45 pm
Winsor @ Portsmouth Abbey, 5:00 pm
Thayer @ Berwick, 5:00 pm
Austin Prep @ Holderness, 5:30 pm
Middlesex @ Pingree, 6:00 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Williston Northampton, 6:00 pm
Milton @ Andover, 6:15 pm
St. Paul's @ Tabor, 6:30 pm
BB&N @ Noble & Greenough, 6:30 pm
Shady Side Academy @ Lawrenceville, 6:45 pm
Cushing @ Loomis Chaffee, 7:00 pm
Pomfret @ St. Mark's, 7:00 pm

Saturday, February 10, 2024
Governor's @ Tabor, 1:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Frederick Gunn School, 1:00 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ Kents Hill, 1:30 pm
Southfield @ Austin Prep, 2:00 pm
Millbrook @ Kent, 2:00 pm
Milton @ Middlesex, 2:00 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Pomfret, 2:00 pm
The Hill School @ Noble & Greenough, 2:00 pm
Shady Side Academy @ Lawrenceville, 2:00 pm
Hebron @ Tilton, 2:15 pm
New Hampton @ Exeter, 2:30 pm
Choate @ Loomis Chaffee, 3:00 pm
St. Mark's @ Rivers, 3:00 pm
Brooks @ St. George's, 4:00 pm
Hoosac @ Vermont Academy, 4:00 pm
Pingree vs. Greenwich CD, 4:00 pm -- at Pomfret School
Deerfield @ Berkshire, 4:30 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Thayer, 4:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ Proctor, 4:30 pm
Hotchkiss @ Taft, 5:00 pm
Cushing @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 5:00 pm
Andover @ Williston Northampton, 5:15 pm
Westminster @ Canterbury, 6:30 pm

Sunday, February 11, 2024
The Hill School @ Winchendon U19, 9:00 am
Hoosac @ Canterbury, 1:00 pm
The Hill School @ Winchendon Green, 1:00 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Worcester Academy, 4:00 pm

Monday, February 12, 2024
Vermont Academy @ Holderness, 4:45 pm
Westminster @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:45 pm
Berwick @ Exeter, 5:00 pm
Pomfret @ Taft, 5:15 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Greenwich Country Day, 5:30 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ Austin Prep, 6:00 pm