Fri. 2/18/22
Playoff Hunt Heating Up
Heading into the final nine days of the regular season, a number of key matchups have the potential to induce seismic shifts in current and projected playoff seedings.
But before we get into that, for those of you who are new to USHR, or for anyone looking for a quick refresher course, here are the basics of how the NEPSIHA playoff seedings are determined.
First off, there’s the RPI, which represents the overall strength of schedule for each participating NEPSIHA team (that includes affiliate programs, e.g., St. Andrew’s College). It is both the starting point for Elite 8 eligibility, and the determining factor in small and large school playoff seedings, which, once the Elite 8 is determined, are based solely on RPI ranking.
RPI is calculated as follows: WP (Winning Percentage) + OWP (Opponents' Winning Percentage) + OOWP (Opponents' Opponents’ Winning Percentage). Winning percentage formula is wins plus ties (valued at half a win) divided by games played.
With RPI in hand, we move on to JSPR, an algorithm similar to the NCAA Pairwise Rankings. JSPR was developed here at USHR in 2010 by Taft and Carnegie Mellon alum Jeremy Philipson, with an assist from his college classmate, Epraim Hathaway, an Andover grad (his older brother, Garnet, plays for the Washington Caps). JSPR consists of four criteria, the combination of which is used to determine which teams make it into the Elite 8, and by extension, which teams “fall” into the small and large school playoff tournaments.
There are four categories, weighted differently, used to determine JSPR:
1. Head-to-head result(s), i.e., teams' records vs. each other on ice.
2. Comparing two teams' RPI, i.e., how do they stand against all other NEPSIHA teams. This ensures that the RPI is still a critical component of the JSPR Rankings.
3. Record against mutual opponents, i.e., how two teams fared when facing mutual opponents on the ice.
4. Record against Teams Under Consideration, i.e., how two teams fared vs. other top 16 teams (as determined by the RPI).
The latter category always has the potential to impact the seedings since any team just outside of the top 16 (at the time of writing, that would be #17 Pomfret and #18 NMH) that sneaks up into the top 16 and becomes a Team Under Consideration (TUC) at season’s end can shift a point for or against one or more teams vying for a spot in the Elite 8. In short, lower-ranked teams tend to be the wild card at season’s end.
There’s more to it than that, subtleties such as what constitutes a valid NEPSIHA game (e.g., affiliate vs. affiliate does not) and rules surrounding overtime games during holiday tournaments, and how exactly that's all calculated (recursion aplenty). But the above are the basics, and, rather than get bogged down by minutiae, we will move on and take a look at some crucial current and upcoming games.
First up, Cushing was at Kimball Union today, and lost, 2-1. If that’s not enough, the two teams face off again Saturday, this time at Cushing -- a good old-fashioned home-and-home series. Alas, Cushing could have really used a win over the Wildcats to give themselves a shot at the Elite 8 -- the fat lady isn't singing yet, but she could be hollering tomorrow. KUA, on the other hand, is in good shape. A win Saturday effectively gives them home ice for the Elite 8 playoffs.
Next, Kent's 5-0 loss at Westminster today. This one was a bit of a surprise, but even in an up-and-down year Westy is rarely, if ever, a categorically bad team. Kent's loss could hurt the Lions' chances of landing a spot in the Elite 8, but for now in projected JSPR they're in due to overall strong play against top-ranked opponents.
In Friday's final 'impact' game, Belmont Hill and Nobles battled to a 2-2 draw, a Keller matchup that Nobles came close to winning, giving up the game-tying goal with the goalie pulled for the extra skater and a minute left in regulation. As for the Elite 8, Belmont Hill is all set. Nobles may also have a ticket to the final eight, but their margin for error is reduced. At this time of the season, teams are haunted by such lost chances.
Saturday, Avon Old Farms will be at Salisbury. Avon has been on quite a run this season, but looking at their results, they've played just two games against top 16 opponents. That's more a reflection of the Founders'/Housatonic leagues, which has a significant gap between the top three or four teams and all those beneath them. Saturday we’ll find out if the Scarlet Knights can squeeze out a victory. They need to do so. Otherwise, they’ll be relying on the failings of others to get into the Elite 8.
Looking ahead to next week, KUA and Holderness will likely face off in the Lakes Region Tournament. Because opponents are TBD, these tournament games are not yet “priced in” with respect to playoff predictions (which, if you don't yet know, are in the top right under the “Playoffs” drop-down menu on desktop and laptop computers, and the “More” drop-down menu on mobile). A Holderness win over KUA could seal a spot for them in the Elite 8, and a loss potentially evict them.
Sit back and pop some popcorn, this could be a wild final week. They usually are.
Wed. 3/2/22
NEPSAC Girls' Hockey Tournament
* Quarterfinals Scoreboard *
Wednesday, March 2, 2022
Chuck Vernon Tournament (Elite)
@ #1 Williston vs. #8 Kent, 3:00 pm -- Williston, 5-0
@ #2 Nobles vs. #7 St. Paul's, 3:15 pm -- Nobles, 3-2 (OT)
@ #3 Cushing vs. #6 Tabor, 4:30 pm -- Tabor, 4-0
@ #4 Andover vs. #5 Loomis, 2:30 pm -- Andover, 2-1
Semifinals Schedule -- Saturday, March 5, 2022
#4 Andover @ #1 Williston, 2:00 pm
#6 Tabor @ #2 Nobles, 2:30 pm
Patsy Odden Tournament (Large School)
#1 Deerfield
#2 BB&N
@ #3 Choate vs. #6 Hotchkiss, 3:00 pm -- Hotchkiss, 2-1
@ #4 Taft vs. #5 Governor's, 4:00 pm -- Governor's, 2-1 (OT)
Semifinals Schedule -- Saturday, March 5, 2022
#5 Governor's @ #1 Deerfield, 2:00 pm
#6 Hotchkiss @ #2 BB&N, 1:30 pm
Dorothy Howard Tournament (Small School)
#1 Southfield
#2 Vermont Academy
@ #3 New Hampton vs. #6 Brooks, 3:15 pm -- New Hampton, 3-1
@ #4 Lawrence vs. #5 Rivers, 4:15 pm -- Rivers, 1-0
Semifinals Schedule -- Saturday, March 5, 2022
#5 Rivers @ #1 Southfield, 1:00 pm
#3 New Hampton @ #2 Vermont Academy, 3:30 pm
Sun. 2/20/22
Girls' Prep Composite, Week of Feb. 21, 2022
Monday, February 21, 2022
Pingree @ North Yarmouth Academy, 3:00 pm
Proctor @ Berwick, 3:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ Holderness, 4:30 pm
Westminster @ Portsmouth Abbey, 4:30 pm
Canterbury @ Hotchkiss, 5:00 pm
Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Southfield @ Noble & Greenough, 4:00 pm
Wednesday, February 23, 2022
Hoosac @ Cushing, 2:00 pm
Berkshire @ Taft, 2:30 pm
Deerfield @ Williston Northampton, 2:30 pm
New Hampton @ Kimball Union, 2:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Kent, 2:30 pm
St. George's @ Tabor, 3:00 pm
St. Paul's @ Proctor, 3:15 pm
Southfield JV @ Dana Hall, 3:15 pm
Thayer @ Groton, 4:00 pm
Winchendon @ Exeter, 4:00 pm
Holderness @ Kents Hill, 4:00 pm
Vermont Academy @ Brewster Academy, 4:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Canterbury, 4:00 pm
Milton @ Pomfret, 4:00 pm
Brooks @ St. Mark's, 4:30 pm
Choate @ Hotchkiss, 4:30 pm
Tilton @ Hebron, 4:30 pm
Andover @ Loomis Chaffee, 4:30 pm
Middlesex @ BB&N, 5:00 pm
Rivers @ Lawrence Academy, 5:00 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Governor's, 5:15 pm
Lawrenceville @ Westminster, 5:30 pm
Portledge @ The Hill School, 5:30 pm
Friday, February 25, 2022
NYA @ The Hill School, 8:00 am -- At Hill Tournament
Beaver Country Day @ Dana Hall, 4:00 pm
Hoosac @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:30 pm
Thayer @ BB&N, 5:00 pm
Southfield @ Rivers, 5:00 pm
Berkshire @ Frederick Gunn School, 6:00 pm
Williston Northampton @ Winchendon, 6:00 pm
Hebron @ Kents Hill, 6:00 pm
Worcester Academy @ Millbrook, 6:30 pm
Saturday, February 26, 2022
Culver Academy vs. NYA, 11:00 am -- At Hill Tournament
Southfield @ Lawrence Academy, 1:00 pm
Tabor @ Berkshire, 2:00 pm
Worcester Academy @ Canterbury, 2:00 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Milton, 2:00 pm
Pomfret @ Winchendon, 2:00 pm
Middlesex @ St. George's, 2:00 pm
Cushing @ Choate, 2:00 pm
Exeter @ Andover, 2:00 pm
BB&N @ Williston Northampton, 2:30 pm
Brooks @ Governor's, 2:30 pm
Taft @ Hotchkiss, 2:30 pm
Groton @ St. Mark's, 4:00 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Deerfield, 4:00 pm
Westminster @ Kent, 4:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:30 pm
Hoosac @ Millbrook, 5:00 pm
* END OF REGULAR SEASON *
Sun. 2/13/22
Girls' Prep Composite, Week of Feb. 14, 2022
Monday, February 14, 2022
Vermont Academy @ Holderness, 2:00 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Greenwich Academy, 3:30 pm
Proctor @ Berwick, 3:30 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ St. George's, 4:30 pm
Westminster @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:45 pm
Stanstead College @ Exeter, 5:00 pm
Deerfield @ Loomis Chaffee, 5:30 pm
Milton @ BB&N, 5:30 pm
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
No Games Scheduled
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Holderness @ Proctor, 2:00 pm
Kimball Union @ Tilton, 2:00 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Williston Northampton, 2:30 pm
Kent @ Hotchkiss, 2:30 pm
Cushing @ Deerfield, 2:30 pm
Middlesex @ Lawrence Academy, 2:30 pm
Canterbury @ Millbrook, 2:30 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Pingree, 3:00 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Pomfret, 3:00 pm
Milton JV @ Dana Hall, 3:00 pm
Governor's @ Rivers, 3:15 pm
Andover @ Noble & Greenough, 3:15 pm
Taft @ Westminster, 3:30 pm
St. George's @ Milton, 3:45 pm
Choate @ Berkshire, 4:00 pm
Brewster Academy @ Kents Hill, 4:00 pm
Winchendon @ Worcester Academy, 4:00 pm
Thayer @ St. Mark's, 4:15 pm
Newton Country Day @ Winsor, 4:15 pm
Groton @ Brooks, 4:30 pm
Exeter @ St. Paul's, 4:30 pm
Vermont Academy @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:30 pm
New Hampton @ Southfield, 4:45 pm
Tabor @ BB&N, 5:00 pm
Hoosac @ Lawrenceville, 5:45 pm
Berwick @ Portsmouth Abbey, 6:00 pm
U.S. vs. Canada, 11:10 pm -- at Beijing, China
Thursday, February 17, 2022
No games scheduled
Friday, February 18, 2022
Vermont Academy @ Kimball Union, 3:30 pm
Rivers JV @ Dana Hall, 4:00 pm
Beaver Country Day @ Winsor, 4:15 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Thayer, 4:30 pm
Hebron @ North Yarmouth Academy, 4:45 pm
Southfield @ Cushing, 4:45 pm
Newton Country Day @ Portsmouth Abbey, 5:00 pm
St. Paul's @ Tilton, 5:00 pm
BB&N @ Lawrence Academy, 5:00 pm
Brooks @ Middlesex, 5:30 pm
St. Mark's @ Governor's, 5:30 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Exeter, 5:45 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ New Hampton, 6:00 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Choate, 6:00 pm
Winchendon @ Proctor, 6:00 pm
Pingree @ Brewster Academy, 6:30 pm
Saturday, February 19, 2022
Worcester Academy @ Andover, 12:00 pm
Beaver Country Day @ Milton JV, 12:00 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Governor's, 12:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Canterbury, 2:00 pm
Berwick @ Tilton, 2:00 pm
Choate @ Taft, 2:00 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ Vermont Academy, 2:00 pm
Cushing @ Pomfret, 2:00 pm
Rivers @ Proctor, 2:15 pm
St. Mark's @ BB&N, 2:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ New Hampton, 2:30 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Exeter, 2:30 pm
Thayer @ North Yarmouth Academy, 3:00 pm
Middlesex @ Holderness, 3:00 pm
Hoosac @ WIHLMA Tournament, 3:00 pm -- at Rye Country Day
Groton @ St. George's, 3:30 pm
Tabor @ Noble & Greenough, 3:30 pm
Milton @ Brooks, 3:45 pm
Williston Northampton @ Loomis Chaffee, 4:15 pm
Winchendon @ St. Paul's, 4:30 pm
Lawrenceville @ Millbrook, 4:30 pm
Berkshire @ Westminster, 5:30 pm
Hotchkiss @ Deerfield, 6:30 pm
Sunday, February 20, 2022
Millbrook @ The Hill School, 1:30 pm
Kents Hill @ Worcester Academy, 2:15 pm
Monday, February 21, 2022
Pingree @ North Yarmouth Academy, 3:00 pm
Proctor @ Berwick, 3:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ Holderness, 4:30 pm
Westminster @ Portsmouth Abbey, 4:30 pm
Canterbury @ Hotchkiss, 5:00 pm
Sun. 2/6/22 -- Updated Tues. 2/8/22
Girls' Prep Composite, Week of Feb. 7, 2022
Mon. Feb. 7, 2022
Newton Country Day vs. Beaver Country Day , 4:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Rye Country Day, 4:45 pm
Berwick @ Governor's, 5:00 pm
Rivers @ Cushing, 5:15 pm
Tilton @ Proctor, 6:30 pm
Tues. Feb. 8, 2022
Winchendon @ Hoosac, 5:30 pm -- Cancelled
Wed. Feb. 9, 2022
North Yarmouth Academy @ Portsmouth Abbey, 2:00 pm
Proctor @ Brewster Academy, 2:00 pm
Millbrook @ Frederick Gunn School, 2:30 pm
Berkshire @ Pomfret, 3:00 pm
New Hampton @ St. Paul's, 3:00 pm
Tilton @ Vermont Academy, 3:00 pm
Governor's @ Thayer, 3:15 pm
Tabor @ Middlesex, 3:15 pm
The Hill School @ Lawrenceville, 3:30 pm
St. Mark's @ Milton, 3:30 pm
Williston Northampton @ Choate, 3:30 pm
Taft @ Greenwich Academy, 3:30 pm
Kimball Union @ Exeter, 3:30 pm
Holderness @ Brooks, 3:30 pm
Winchendon @ Southfield, 3:45 pm
St. George's @ BB&N, 4:15 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Groton, 4:15 pm
Deerfield @ Westminster, 4:30 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Hotchkiss, 4:30 pm
Kent @ Canterbury, 4:30 pm
Worcester Academy @ Rivers, 4:45 pm
Beaver Country Day @ Pingree, 5:00 pm
Hebron @ Berwick, 5:00 pm
Dana Hall @ Nobles JV, 5:00 pm
Hoosac @ Portledge, 5:15 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Cushing, 6:00 pm
Thurs. Feb. 10, 2022
No games
Fri. Feb. 11, 2022
Beaver Country Day @ Milton J.V., 4:00 pm
Hoosac @ Kent, 4:00 pm
New Hampton @ Brewster Academy, 4:30 pm
Pingree J.V. @ Dana Hall, 4:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Taft, 4:45 pm
Winsor @ Portsmouth Abbey, 5:00 pm
Berkshire @ Canterbury, 5:15 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Holderness, 5:30 pm
Berwick @ Thayer, 5:30 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Deerfield, 5:30 pm
Cushing @ Loomis Chaffee, 6:00 pm
Hebron @ Pingree, 6:00 pm
BB&N @ Noble & Greenough, 6:15 pm
Milton @ Andover, 6:15 pm
St. Paul's @ Tabor, 6:30 pm
Southfield @ Proctor, 6:30 pm
The Hill School @ Choate, 6:45 pm
Pomfret @ St. Mark's, 7:00 pm
Sat. Feb. 12, 2022
Portsmouth Abbey @ Kents Hill, 1:30 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Kimball Union, 2:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Frederick Gunn School, 2:00 pm
Milton @ Middlesex, 2:00 pm
Millbrook @ Kent, 2:00 pm
New Hampton @ Exeter, 2:30 pm
Hotchkiss @ Taft, 2:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ Proctor, 2:30 pm
Choate @ Loomis Chaffee, 3:00 pm
Governor's @ Tabor, 3:30 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Thayer, 3:45 pm
Hoosac @ Vermont Academy, 4:00 pm
Cushing @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:00 pm
Deerfield @ Berkshire, 4:30 pm
The Hill School @ Noble & Greenough, 4:30 pm
St. Mark's @ Rivers, 4:30 pm
Worcester Academy @ Holderness, 4:30 pm
Pomfret @ St. Paul's, 4:30 pm
Brooks @ St. George's, 4:30 pm
Andover @ Williston Northampton, 4:45 pm
Westminster @ Canterbury, 6:30 pm
Sun. Feb. 13, 2022
Hebron @ Winchendon, 12:00 pm
Lawrenceville @ Hotchkiss, 1:00 pm
Mon. Feb. 14, 2022
Choate @ Taft, 7:00 am
Vermont Academy @ Holderness, 2:00 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Greenwich Academy, 3:30 pm
Proctor @ Berwick, 3:30 pm
Westminster @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:45 pm
BB&N @ Cushing, 5:15 pm
Deerfield @ Loomis Chaffee, 5:30 pm
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