Sun. 2/27/22
Too Close to Call?
Since NEPSIHA switched to the automated JSPR seeding algorithm in 2013, we have never had a four-way tie, much less a three-way tie at the conclusion of the regular season.
You might be wondering how it is that Cushing and Holderness hold the 7th and 8th spots while tied in JSPR points with Kent and Nobles? The rules for deciding JSPR point tie-breakers are simple: Head-to-head record, with RPI as the fallback. Since none of the four teams played each other (itself an anomaly), ranking order then goes sequentially by RPI, with Cushing and Holderness coming out on top.
At first glance things don’t look that close -- clearly, Cushing and Holderness have a significant advantage in RPI, but take note of the RPI difference between Kent and St. Mark’s: .0001. That’s right, 1/100th of a percent. If that differential fell in Kent’s favor, they would have gained a JSPR point from St. Mark’s and taken exclusive hold of the #7 slot in the Elite 8, with Cushing taking the #8 spot. And both Holderness and Nobles would fall short.
Similarly, Nobles, despite yesterday’s loss, could have taken the seventh spot with an Andover win over Exeter. Truly, things were incredibly close, and could have gone either way.
The case for each team:
1) Cushing arguably has the strongest case. They played eight teams in the Top 16, notably trading victories with Dexter and KUA, and their losses -- with the exception of Wednesday's stumble against New Hampton -- have all been by a single goal. They're a strong, consistent team with marquee victories over some of the best teams in prep hockey.
2) Holderness has quite an impressive record: 20-3-3 is nothing to sneeze at. However, their relatively weak schedule factors into their solid RPI, as they consistently beat low-to-medium-quality opposition, with just three games against teams in the Top 16 (a win over Exeter, and two losses to KUA, who they will meet yet again in the first round of the Elite 8 playoffs). The Bulls are a solid team that may be better or worse than the numbers indicate. Without a doubt, more quality opposition during the regular season would have added clarity. That said, you can't always choose your opponents. And Holderness won the games they were expected to win. They've earned their chance.
3) Kent was up, down, and all around. Like Cushing, they played eight teams in the Top 16, with key victories over Avon, Brunswick, and Salisbury (twice!). They've also had lapses, e.g., losses to Trinity-Pawling and Canterbury. Capable of beating the best, Kent also played down to the level of some weaker opponents.
4) With Nobles, just from looking at their team results, it's as if they brought in the JV squad in January. Over the course of the season, the Bulldogs played six games against Top 16 opponents, going 3-1-2 (2-0-1 in December; 1-1-1 since) against the best of the best. While clearly capable of beating anyone, they squandered opportunities.
So who would you pick? The numbers, by the slimmest of margins, say Cushing and Holderness, and it is true that those two teams took advantage of opportunities that Kent and Nobles squandered. But in this case, given how close things are, one can't help but wonder about a pair of Monday play-in games to add spice to these razor-tight races. Do it like the Mass Super 8 does: #10 plays #7, and #9 plays #8 in a single-elimination game. Of course, this would require six teams to play four games inside of a week, which the heads of school are likely to balk at.
The current system is fair, and the math lines up precisely, but in these types of too-close-to-call siutations, deciding it on the ice wouldn't be unfair to any of the teams. All four are worthy -- and it would be fun.
Wed. 3/2/22
NEPSAC Girls' Hockey Tournament
* Quarterfinals Scoreboard *
Wednesday, March 2, 2022
Chuck Vernon Tournament (Elite)
@ #1 Williston vs. #8 Kent, 3:00 pm -- Williston, 5-0
@ #2 Nobles vs. #7 St. Paul's, 3:15 pm -- Nobles, 3-2 (OT)
@ #3 Cushing vs. #6 Tabor, 4:30 pm -- Tabor, 4-0
@ #4 Andover vs. #5 Loomis, 2:30 pm -- Andover, 2-1
Semifinals Schedule -- Saturday, March 5, 2022
#4 Andover @ #1 Williston, 2:00 pm
#6 Tabor @ #2 Nobles, 2:30 pm
Patsy Odden Tournament (Large School)
#1 Deerfield
#2 BB&N
@ #3 Choate vs. #6 Hotchkiss, 3:00 pm -- Hotchkiss, 2-1
@ #4 Taft vs. #5 Governor's, 4:00 pm -- Governor's, 2-1 (OT)
Semifinals Schedule -- Saturday, March 5, 2022
#5 Governor's @ #1 Deerfield, 2:00 pm
#6 Hotchkiss @ #2 BB&N, 1:30 pm
Dorothy Howard Tournament (Small School)
#1 Southfield
#2 Vermont Academy
@ #3 New Hampton vs. #6 Brooks, 3:15 pm -- New Hampton, 3-1
@ #4 Lawrence vs. #5 Rivers, 4:15 pm -- Rivers, 1-0
Semifinals Schedule -- Saturday, March 5, 2022
#5 Rivers @ #1 Southfield, 1:00 pm
#3 New Hampton @ #2 Vermont Academy, 3:30 pm
Sun. 2/20/22
Girls' Prep Composite, Week of Feb. 21, 2022
Monday, February 21, 2022
Pingree @ North Yarmouth Academy, 3:00 pm
Proctor @ Berwick, 3:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ Holderness, 4:30 pm
Westminster @ Portsmouth Abbey, 4:30 pm
Canterbury @ Hotchkiss, 5:00 pm
Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Southfield @ Noble & Greenough, 4:00 pm
Wednesday, February 23, 2022
Hoosac @ Cushing, 2:00 pm
Berkshire @ Taft, 2:30 pm
Deerfield @ Williston Northampton, 2:30 pm
New Hampton @ Kimball Union, 2:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Kent, 2:30 pm
St. George's @ Tabor, 3:00 pm
St. Paul's @ Proctor, 3:15 pm
Southfield JV @ Dana Hall, 3:15 pm
Thayer @ Groton, 4:00 pm
Winchendon @ Exeter, 4:00 pm
Holderness @ Kents Hill, 4:00 pm
Vermont Academy @ Brewster Academy, 4:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Canterbury, 4:00 pm
Milton @ Pomfret, 4:00 pm
Brooks @ St. Mark's, 4:30 pm
Choate @ Hotchkiss, 4:30 pm
Tilton @ Hebron, 4:30 pm
Andover @ Loomis Chaffee, 4:30 pm
Middlesex @ BB&N, 5:00 pm
Rivers @ Lawrence Academy, 5:00 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Governor's, 5:15 pm
Lawrenceville @ Westminster, 5:30 pm
Portledge @ The Hill School, 5:30 pm
Friday, February 25, 2022
NYA @ The Hill School, 8:00 am -- At Hill Tournament
Beaver Country Day @ Dana Hall, 4:00 pm
Hoosac @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:30 pm
Thayer @ BB&N, 5:00 pm
Southfield @ Rivers, 5:00 pm
Berkshire @ Frederick Gunn School, 6:00 pm
Williston Northampton @ Winchendon, 6:00 pm
Hebron @ Kents Hill, 6:00 pm
Worcester Academy @ Millbrook, 6:30 pm
Saturday, February 26, 2022
Culver Academy vs. NYA, 11:00 am -- At Hill Tournament
Southfield @ Lawrence Academy, 1:00 pm
Tabor @ Berkshire, 2:00 pm
Worcester Academy @ Canterbury, 2:00 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Milton, 2:00 pm
Pomfret @ Winchendon, 2:00 pm
Middlesex @ St. George's, 2:00 pm
Cushing @ Choate, 2:00 pm
Exeter @ Andover, 2:00 pm
BB&N @ Williston Northampton, 2:30 pm
Brooks @ Governor's, 2:30 pm
Taft @ Hotchkiss, 2:30 pm
Groton @ St. Mark's, 4:00 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Deerfield, 4:00 pm
Westminster @ Kent, 4:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:30 pm
Hoosac @ Millbrook, 5:00 pm
* END OF REGULAR SEASON *
Sun. 2/13/22
Girls' Prep Composite, Week of Feb. 14, 2022
Monday, February 14, 2022
Vermont Academy @ Holderness, 2:00 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Greenwich Academy, 3:30 pm
Proctor @ Berwick, 3:30 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ St. George's, 4:30 pm
Westminster @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:45 pm
Stanstead College @ Exeter, 5:00 pm
Deerfield @ Loomis Chaffee, 5:30 pm
Milton @ BB&N, 5:30 pm
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
No Games Scheduled
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Holderness @ Proctor, 2:00 pm
Kimball Union @ Tilton, 2:00 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Williston Northampton, 2:30 pm
Kent @ Hotchkiss, 2:30 pm
Cushing @ Deerfield, 2:30 pm
Middlesex @ Lawrence Academy, 2:30 pm
Canterbury @ Millbrook, 2:30 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Pingree, 3:00 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Pomfret, 3:00 pm
Milton JV @ Dana Hall, 3:00 pm
Governor's @ Rivers, 3:15 pm
Andover @ Noble & Greenough, 3:15 pm
Taft @ Westminster, 3:30 pm
St. George's @ Milton, 3:45 pm
Choate @ Berkshire, 4:00 pm
Brewster Academy @ Kents Hill, 4:00 pm
Winchendon @ Worcester Academy, 4:00 pm
Thayer @ St. Mark's, 4:15 pm
Newton Country Day @ Winsor, 4:15 pm
Groton @ Brooks, 4:30 pm
Exeter @ St. Paul's, 4:30 pm
Vermont Academy @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:30 pm
New Hampton @ Southfield, 4:45 pm
Tabor @ BB&N, 5:00 pm
Hoosac @ Lawrenceville, 5:45 pm
Berwick @ Portsmouth Abbey, 6:00 pm
U.S. vs. Canada, 11:10 pm -- at Beijing, China
Thursday, February 17, 2022
No games scheduled
Friday, February 18, 2022
Vermont Academy @ Kimball Union, 3:30 pm
Rivers JV @ Dana Hall, 4:00 pm
Beaver Country Day @ Winsor, 4:15 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Thayer, 4:30 pm
Hebron @ North Yarmouth Academy, 4:45 pm
Southfield @ Cushing, 4:45 pm
Newton Country Day @ Portsmouth Abbey, 5:00 pm
St. Paul's @ Tilton, 5:00 pm
BB&N @ Lawrence Academy, 5:00 pm
Brooks @ Middlesex, 5:30 pm
St. Mark's @ Governor's, 5:30 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Exeter, 5:45 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ New Hampton, 6:00 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Choate, 6:00 pm
Winchendon @ Proctor, 6:00 pm
Pingree @ Brewster Academy, 6:30 pm
Saturday, February 19, 2022
Worcester Academy @ Andover, 12:00 pm
Beaver Country Day @ Milton JV, 12:00 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Governor's, 12:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Canterbury, 2:00 pm
Berwick @ Tilton, 2:00 pm
Choate @ Taft, 2:00 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ Vermont Academy, 2:00 pm
Cushing @ Pomfret, 2:00 pm
Rivers @ Proctor, 2:15 pm
St. Mark's @ BB&N, 2:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ New Hampton, 2:30 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Exeter, 2:30 pm
Thayer @ North Yarmouth Academy, 3:00 pm
Middlesex @ Holderness, 3:00 pm
Hoosac @ WIHLMA Tournament, 3:00 pm -- at Rye Country Day
Groton @ St. George's, 3:30 pm
Tabor @ Noble & Greenough, 3:30 pm
Milton @ Brooks, 3:45 pm
Williston Northampton @ Loomis Chaffee, 4:15 pm
Winchendon @ St. Paul's, 4:30 pm
Lawrenceville @ Millbrook, 4:30 pm
Berkshire @ Westminster, 5:30 pm
Hotchkiss @ Deerfield, 6:30 pm
Sunday, February 20, 2022
Millbrook @ The Hill School, 1:30 pm
Kents Hill @ Worcester Academy, 2:15 pm
Monday, February 21, 2022
Pingree @ North Yarmouth Academy, 3:00 pm
Proctor @ Berwick, 3:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ Holderness, 4:30 pm
Westminster @ Portsmouth Abbey, 4:30 pm
Canterbury @ Hotchkiss, 5:00 pm
Sun. 2/6/22 -- Updated Tues. 2/8/22
Girls' Prep Composite, Week of Feb. 7, 2022
Mon. Feb. 7, 2022
Newton Country Day vs. Beaver Country Day , 4:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Rye Country Day, 4:45 pm
Berwick @ Governor's, 5:00 pm
Rivers @ Cushing, 5:15 pm
Tilton @ Proctor, 6:30 pm
Tues. Feb. 8, 2022
Winchendon @ Hoosac, 5:30 pm -- Cancelled
Wed. Feb. 9, 2022
North Yarmouth Academy @ Portsmouth Abbey, 2:00 pm
Proctor @ Brewster Academy, 2:00 pm
Millbrook @ Frederick Gunn School, 2:30 pm
Berkshire @ Pomfret, 3:00 pm
New Hampton @ St. Paul's, 3:00 pm
Tilton @ Vermont Academy, 3:00 pm
Governor's @ Thayer, 3:15 pm
Tabor @ Middlesex, 3:15 pm
The Hill School @ Lawrenceville, 3:30 pm
St. Mark's @ Milton, 3:30 pm
Williston Northampton @ Choate, 3:30 pm
Taft @ Greenwich Academy, 3:30 pm
Kimball Union @ Exeter, 3:30 pm
Holderness @ Brooks, 3:30 pm
Winchendon @ Southfield, 3:45 pm
St. George's @ BB&N, 4:15 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Groton, 4:15 pm
Deerfield @ Westminster, 4:30 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Hotchkiss, 4:30 pm
Kent @ Canterbury, 4:30 pm
Worcester Academy @ Rivers, 4:45 pm
Beaver Country Day @ Pingree, 5:00 pm
Hebron @ Berwick, 5:00 pm
Dana Hall @ Nobles JV, 5:00 pm
Hoosac @ Portledge, 5:15 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Cushing, 6:00 pm
Thurs. Feb. 10, 2022
No games
Fri. Feb. 11, 2022
Beaver Country Day @ Milton J.V., 4:00 pm
Hoosac @ Kent, 4:00 pm
New Hampton @ Brewster Academy, 4:30 pm
Pingree J.V. @ Dana Hall, 4:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Taft, 4:45 pm
Winsor @ Portsmouth Abbey, 5:00 pm
Berkshire @ Canterbury, 5:15 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Holderness, 5:30 pm
Berwick @ Thayer, 5:30 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Deerfield, 5:30 pm
Cushing @ Loomis Chaffee, 6:00 pm
Hebron @ Pingree, 6:00 pm
BB&N @ Noble & Greenough, 6:15 pm
Milton @ Andover, 6:15 pm
St. Paul's @ Tabor, 6:30 pm
Southfield @ Proctor, 6:30 pm
The Hill School @ Choate, 6:45 pm
Pomfret @ St. Mark's, 7:00 pm
Sat. Feb. 12, 2022
Portsmouth Abbey @ Kents Hill, 1:30 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Kimball Union, 2:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Frederick Gunn School, 2:00 pm
Milton @ Middlesex, 2:00 pm
Millbrook @ Kent, 2:00 pm
New Hampton @ Exeter, 2:30 pm
Hotchkiss @ Taft, 2:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ Proctor, 2:30 pm
Choate @ Loomis Chaffee, 3:00 pm
Governor's @ Tabor, 3:30 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Thayer, 3:45 pm
Hoosac @ Vermont Academy, 4:00 pm
Cushing @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:00 pm
Deerfield @ Berkshire, 4:30 pm
The Hill School @ Noble & Greenough, 4:30 pm
St. Mark's @ Rivers, 4:30 pm
Worcester Academy @ Holderness, 4:30 pm
Pomfret @ St. Paul's, 4:30 pm
Brooks @ St. George's, 4:30 pm
Andover @ Williston Northampton, 4:45 pm
Westminster @ Canterbury, 6:30 pm
Sun. Feb. 13, 2022
Hebron @ Winchendon, 12:00 pm
Lawrenceville @ Hotchkiss, 1:00 pm
Mon. Feb. 14, 2022
Choate @ Taft, 7:00 am
Vermont Academy @ Holderness, 2:00 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Greenwich Academy, 3:30 pm
Proctor @ Berwick, 3:30 pm
Westminster @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:45 pm
BB&N @ Cushing, 5:15 pm
Deerfield @ Loomis Chaffee, 5:30 pm
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