Mon. 2/20/23
One, Two, Three, Go!
We’ve reached the final week of the regular season, and with one, two, or, at most, three games to play for each NEPSIHA team, there’s still plenty of room for movement in the playoff seedings. But before we look into some of the upcoming impact games, let’s first do a quick recap of how the NEPSIHA playoff seedings are determined.
It all starts with the RPI, which represents the overall strength of schedule for each participating NEPSIHA team (that includes affiliate programs, e.g., St. Andrew’s College). It is both the starting point for Elite 8 eligibility, and the determining factor in small and large school playoff seedings, which, once the Elite 8 is determined, are based solely on RPI ranking.
RPI is calculated as follows: WP (Winning Percentage) + OWP (Opponents' Winning Percentage) + OOWP (Opponents' Opponents’ Winning Percentage). Winning percentage formula is wins plus ties (valued at half a win) divided by games played.
Having determined the RPI for each team, we move on to JSPR, an algorithm similar to the NCAA Pairwise Rankings. JSPR was developed here at USHR in 2010 by Taft and Carnegie Mellon alum Jeremy Philipson. JSPR consists of four criteria, the combination of which is used to determine which teams make it into the Elite 8, and, by extension, which teams “fall” into the small and large school playoff tournaments.
There are four categories, weighted differently, used to determine JSPR:
1. Head-to-head result(s), i.e., teams' records vs. each other on ice.
2. Comparing two teams' RPI, i.e., how they stand against all other NEPSIHA teams. (This ensures that the RPI is still a critical component of the JSPR Rankings.)
3. Record against mutual opponents, i.e., how two teams fared when facing mutual opponents on the ice.
4. Record against Teams Under Consideration, i.e., how two teams fared vs. other top 16 teams (as determined by the RPI).
The latter category always has the potential to impact the seedings since any team just outside of the top 16 (at the time of writing, that would be #17 NMH and #18 Loomis Chaffee) that sneaks up into the top 16 and becomes a Team Under Consideration (TUC) at season’s end can shift a point for or against one or more teams vying for a spot in the Elite 8. In short, lower-ranked teams can be a wild card at season’s end.
There’s more to it than that, subtleties such as what constitutes a valid NEPSIHA game (e.g., prior to this season affiliate vs. affiliate results were excluded, but starting this season they are included) and rules surrounding overtime games during holiday tournaments, and how exactly that's all calculated (recursion aplenty). But the above are the basics, and, rather than get bogged down by minutiae, let’s move on and take a look at some crucial current and upcoming games.
First up, Tabor @ Belmont Hill on Wednesday. Currently, Tabor, with respect to landing a spot in the Elite 8, finds themselves on the outside looking in. However, if Tabor can pull off an upset in Bel Hill’s barn they’ll give themselves a shot, potentially snagging the #8 seed.
Next, Dexter, currently sitting near the bottom of JSPR, has a taller task in order to get back into the mix, needing to take down both Holderness on Wednesday, and Bel Hill on Friday. Like Tabor, Dexter is angling for the final spot in the Elite 8.
There’s also Westminster. If they can beat Gunn (Wed.), Deerfield (Fri.), and then top things off with an upset over Bel Hill Saturday, that should be enough to lock up a spot in the Elite 8. For them, Belmont Hill is the big one. No doubt plenty of motivation there for the Martlets.
The Lakes Region Tournament is a big wild card. Both KUA and Holderness are within striking distance, but likely need to run the table this weekend (while likely facing each other in the process) in order for either team to have a chance at a spot in the Elite 8.
In addition to the above win-or-go-home scenarios, current Elite 8 locks (namely, the top five seeds) will be battling for home ice. Milton @ Nobles on Saturday, for example, could see Milton with home ice in the quarterfinals if they take the win on the final day of the regular season.
Finally, for those that don’t know, you can view current RPI, JSPR, and playoff seedings, along with projected JSPR and playoff seedings, under the “Playoffs” drop-down menu on desktop and laptop computers, and the “More” drop-down menu on mobile.
We'll provide an update after Wednesday. In the meantime, enjoy watching the fast-changing fortunes the final week affords.
Sat. 2/25/23 -- updated
NEPSAC Girls' Hockey Tournament
* Quarterfinals Scoreboard *
Wednesday, March 1, 2023
Chuck Vernon Tournament (Elite)
#8 Loomis @ #1 Williston Northampton, 4:00 pm -- Williston, 3-2
#7 Milton @ #2 Andover, 4:00 pm -- Andover, 3-1
#6 Southfield @ #3 Kent, 3:00 pm -- Kent, 4-3 (OT)
#5 Nobles @ #4 Tabor, 4:30 pm -- Nobles, 2-1
Semifinals Schedule, Saturday 3/4/23:
#5 Nobles @ #1 Williston, 2:00 pm
#3 Kent @ #2 Andover, 2:00 pm
Patsy Odden Tournament (Large School)
#1 St. Paul's -- bye
#2 Westminster -- bye
#6 Choate @ #3 Taft, 2:30 pm -- Taft, 4-1
#5 BB&N @ #4 Austin Prep, 6:00 pm -- BB&N, 2-1
Semifinals Schedule, Friday 3/3/23:
#5 BB&N @ #1 St. Paul's, 6:00 pm
#6 Taft @ #2 Westminster, 6:00 pm
Dorothy Howard Tournament (Small School)
#1 Groton -- bye
#2 Cushing -- bye
#6 Portsmouth Abbey @ #3 New Hampton, 4:00 pm -- New Hampton, 3-2
#5 Lawrence Academy @ #4 Millbrook -- Millbrook, 4-1
Semifinals Schedule, Saturday 3/4/23:
#4 Millbrook @ #1 Groton, 2:00 pm
#3 New Hampton @ #2 Cushing, 2:00 pm
Championship Sunday, 3/5/23 -- Hosted by Taft
Small School, 11:00 am
Large School, 1:15 pm
Elite 8, 4:00 pm
Sun. 2/19/23 -- Last Update Thurs. 2/23
Girls' Prep Composite Schedule:
Week of February 20, 2023
Monday, February 20, 2023
Holderness @ Brewster Academy, 4:00 pm
Berkshire @ Frederick Gunn School, 5:00 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Cushing, 5:00 pm
Hotchkiss @ Canterbury, 5:30 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Exeter, 5:30 pm
Tuesday, February 21, 2023
Beaver Country Day @ Pingree, 4:00 pm
Wednesday, February 22, 2023
Hoosac @ Cushing, 2:00 pm
Taft @ Berkshire, 2:30 pm
Kent @ Frederick Gunn School, 2:30 pm
Kimball Union @ New Hampton, 2:30 pm
Williston Northampton @ Deerfield, 2:30 pm
Proctor @ St. Paul's, 3:00 pm
Tabor @ St. George's, 3:00 pm
Brewster Academy @ Vermont Academy, 3:30 pm
Canterbury @ Greenwich Academy, 3:30 pm
Exeter @ Winchendon, 3:30 pm
Princeton Day School @ Portledge, 3:45 pm
Groton @ Thayer, 4:00 pm
Kents Hill @ Holderness, 4:00 pm
Pomfret @ Milton, 4:00 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Andover, 4:00 pm
Winsor @ Newton Country Day, 4:15 pm
Middlesex @ BB&N, 4:30 pm
St. Mark's @ Brooks, 4:45 pm
Governor's @ Noble & Greenough, 4:45 pm
Lawrenceville @ Westminster, 5:00 pm
Hotchkiss @ Choate, 5:00 pm
Austin Prep @ Tilton, 5:00 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Rivers, 5:30 pm
Winchendon Green @ Beaver CD, 7:00 pm
Thursday, February 23, 2023
No Games Scheduled
Friday, February 24, 2023
Lakes Region Tournament (Semifinals)
#1 SPS will host #4 Tilton School at 6:30 p.m.
#2 New Hampton will host #3 KUA at 4:00 p.m.
#5 Vermont Academy will host #8 Brewster at 4:30 p.m.
#6 Holderness will host #7 Proctor at 3:30 p.m.
---------------------------------------------------------
Beaver Country Day @ Dana Hall, 3:30 pm
Hoosac @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:30 pm
Rivers @ Southfield, 5:00 pm
BB&N @ Thayer, 5:00 pm
Austin Prep @ Kents Hill, 5:00 pm
Winchendon @ Williston Northampton, 6:00 pm
Millbrook @ Worcester Academy, 6:00 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Winchendon Green, 6:30 pm
Saturday, February 25, 2023
Greenwich Country Day @ Winchendon Green, 11:30 am
Williston Northampton @ BB&N, 1:00 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Southfield, 1:00 pm
St. Mark's @ Groton, 2:00 pm
Milton @ Noble & Greenough, 2:00 pm
Governor's @ Brooks, 2:00 pm
St. George's @ Middlesex, 2:00 pm
Andover @ Exeter, 2:00 pm
Kent @ Westminster, 2:30 pm
Canterbury @ Worcester Academy, 3:00 pm
Berkshire @ Tabor, 4:00 pm
Deerfield @ Loomis Chaffee, 4:00 pm
Choate @ Cushing, 4:30 pm
Winchendon @ Pomfret, 4:30 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Frederick Gunn School, 4:30 pm
The Hill School vs. North Yarmouth Academy, 5:00 pm -- @ Lawrence Academy
Hoosac @ Millbrook, 5:00 pm
Hotchkiss @ Taft, 5:00 pm
END OF REGULAR SEASON
Sunday, February 26, 2023
The Hill School vs. Worcester Academy, 10:00 am (S) -- @ Lawrence Academy
Sun. 2/13/23
Girls' Prep Composite Schedule:
Week of February 13, 2023
Monday, February 13, 2023
Groton @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:00 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Westminster, 4:45 pm
Austin Prep @ Portsmouth Abbey, 4:45 pm
Rivers @ Thayer, 5:00 pm
Holderness @ Vermont Academy, 5:00 pm
Berwick @ Exeter, 5:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Greenwich Country Day, 6:15 pm
Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Portledge vs. Hoosac, 3:15 pm -- at Brewster (NY) Ice Arena
Wednesday, February 15, 2023
Proctor @ Holderness, 2:00 pm
Tilton @ Kimball Union, 2:30 pm
St. Paul's @ Exeter, 2:30 pm
Westminster @ Taft, 2:30 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ Greenwich Country Day, 2:30 pm
Millbrook @ Canterbury, 2:30 pm
Worcester Academy @ Winchendon, 2:30 pm
Hoosac @ Austin Prep, 3:00 pm
Deerfield @ Cushing, 3:00 pm
Lawrence Academy @ Middlesex, 3:00 pm
Pomfret @ Loomis Chaffee, 3:15 pm
St. Mark's @ Thayer, 3:30 pm
Milton @ St. George's, 4:00 pm
Berkshire @ Choate, 4:15 pm
Williston Northampton @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 4:15 pm
Brooks @ Groton, 4:30 pm
Hotchkiss @ Kent, 4:30 pm
Kents Hill @ Brewster Academy, 4:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Vermont Academy, 4:45 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Andover, 4:45 pm
Pingree @ North Yarmouth Academy, 4:45 pm
Southfield @ New Hampton, 4:45 pm
Rivers @ Governor's, 5:00 pm
BB&N @ Tabor, 5:00 pm
Thursday, February 16, 2023
Greenwich Country Day @ Newton Country Day, 4:15 pm
Friday, February 17, 2023
Beaver Country Day @ Winsor, 4:15 pm
Pomfret @ Deerfield, 4:30 pm
Newton Country Day @ Portsmouth Abbey, 5:00 pm
Tilton @ St. Paul's, 5:00 pm
Brewster Academy @ Pingree, 5:00 pm
Cushing @ Southfield, 5:15 pm
Thayer @ Noble & Greenough, 5:30 pm
Lawrence Academy @ BB&N, 5:30 pm
Middlesex @ Brooks, 5:30 pm
Kimball Union @ Vermont Academy, 6:00 pm
North Yarmouth Academy @ Kents Hill, 6:00 pm
Choate @ Frederick Gunn School, 6:00 pm
New Hampton @ Proctor, 6:30 pm
The Hill School @ Taft, 6:45 pm
Saturday, February 18, 2023
BB&N @ St. Mark's, 11:00 am
Governor's @ Lawrence Academy, 12:30 pm
Pomfret @ Cushing, 1:00 pm
Vermont Academy @ Portsmouth Abbey, 1:15 pm
Austin Prep @ Kimball Union, 2:00 pm
Canterbury @ Frederick Gunn School, 2:00 pm
New Hampton @ Brewster Academy, 2:30 pm
Worcester Academy @ Andover, 2:30 pm
Exeter @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 2:30 pm
Middlesex @ Holderness, 2:45 pm
Proctor @ Rivers, 3:00 pm
St. Paul's @ Winchendon, 3:00 pm
Brooks @ Milton, 3:00 pm
St. George's @ Groton, 3:30 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Williston Northampton, 3:30 pm
Noble & Greenough @ Tabor, 3:30 pm
Choate @ Taft, 4:00 pm
Tilton @ Berwick, 4:00 pm
Deerfield @ Hotchkiss, 4:15 pm
Westminster @ Berkshire, 4:30 pm
Millbrook @ Lawrenceville, 5:00 pm
Kents Hill @ North Yarmouth Academy, 5:30 pm
Sunday, February 19, 2023
Millbrook @ The Hill School, 12:00 pm
Monday, February 20, 2023
Holderness @ Brewster Academy, 4:00 pm
Berkshire @ Frederick Gunn School, 5:00 pm
Hotchkiss @ Canterbury, 5:30 pm
Sun. 2/5/23
Girls' Prep Composite Schedule:
Week of February 6, 2023
Monday, February 6, 2023
Beaver Country Day @ Newton Country Day, 4:15 pm
Andover @ Milton, 5:00 pm
Morristown Beard @ Portledge, 5:30 pm
Tuesday, February 7, 2023
No Games
Wednesday, February 8, 2023
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ St. Paul's, 12:30 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Taft, 2:30 pm
Vermont Academy @ Tilton, 2:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Millbrook, 2:30 pm
Hotchkiss @ Greenwich Country Day, 2:45 pm
Portsmouth Abbey @ North Yarmouth Academy, 3:00 pm
Cushing @ Lawrence Academy, 3:00 pm
Groton @ Noble & Greenough, 3:15 pm
Middlesex @ Tabor, 3:15 pm
Nobles JV @ Dana Hall, 3:15 pm
Pomfret @ Berkshire, 3:30 pm
Milton @ St. Mark's, 3:30 pm
Brooks @ Holderness, 3:30 pm
Exeter @ Kimball Union, 4:00 pm
Rivers @ Worcester Academy, 4:00 pm
Choate @ Williston Northampton, 4:00 pm
Brewster Academy @ Proctor, 4:00 pm
Pingree @ Beaver Country Day , 4:00 pm
BB&N @ St. George's, 4:15 pm
Canterbury @ Kent, 4:30 pm
Westminster @ Deerfield, 4:30 pm
Southfield @ Winchendon, 4:30 pm
Thayer @ Governor's, 4:30 pm
Portledge @ Lawrenceville, 5:00 pm
Austin Prep @ Andover, 6:00 pm
Thursday, February 9, 2023
Westminster @ Williston Northampton, 5:00 pm
Friday, February 10, 2023
Northwood Tournament
Dana Hall @ Pingree JV, 3:30 pm
Brewster Academy @ New Hampton, 4:00 pm
Pingree @ Worcester Academy, 4:00 pm
Berwick @ Thayer, 4:15 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Taft, 4:45 pm
Greenwich Country Day @ Rye Country Day, 4:45 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Millbrook, 5:00 pm
Winsor @ Portsmouth Abbey, 6:00 pm
Noble & Greenough @ BB&N, 6:00 pm
Milton J.V. @ Beaver Country Day , 6:00 pm
Tabor @ St. Paul's, 6:30 pm
The Hill School @ Choate, 7:00 pm
St. Mark's @ Pomfret, 7:00 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Cushing, 7:00 pm
Saturday, February 11, 2023
Austin Prep @ Southfield, 1:00 pm
Tabor @ Governor's, 1:00 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Greenwich Academy, 1:00 pm
Exeter @ New Hampton, 1:30 pm
The Hill School @ Noble & Greenough, 2:00 pm
Kents Hill @ Portsmouth Abbey, 2:00 pm
Rivers @ St. Mark's, 2:00 pm
Middlesex @ Milton, 2:00 pm
Williston Northampton @ Andover, 2:15 pm
Taft @ Hotchkiss, 2:30 pm
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Cushing, 2:30 pm
Proctor @ Brewster Academy, 2:30 pm
Kimball Union @ North Yarmouth Academy, 3:15 pm
Thayer @ Lawrence Academy, 3:30 pm
Holderness @ Worcester Academy, 3:30 pm
Vermont Academy @ Hoosac, 4:00 pm
Pomfret @ Pingree, 4:00 pm
Berkshire @ Deerfield, 4:30 pm
St. George's @ Brooks, 4:30 pm
Kent @ Millbrook, 4:45 pm
Loomis Chaffee @ Choate, 5:00 pm
Canterbury @ Westminster, 6:30 pm
Sunday, February 12, 2023
The Hill School @ Pomfret, 11:00 am
Lawrenceville @ Hotchkiss, 1:00 pm
Monday, February 13, 2023
Darien HS @ Rye Country Day, 3:30 pm
Frederick Gunn School @ Westminster, 4:45 pm
Austin Prep @ Portsmouth Abbey, 4:45 pm
Rivers @ Thayer, 5:00 pm
Holderness @ Vermont Academy, 5:00 pm
Berwick @ Exeter, 5:00 pm
Greenwich Academy @ Greenwich Country Day, 6:15 pm
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