2/7/06

Updated Playoff Scenario

In less than three weeks, the regular season will be over and we will know the playoff pairings for this year's NEPSIHA playoffs. As of today, six of the eight teams look like solid choices. In the east, Nobles, Cushing, and Belmont Hill are in excellent shape as the season turns into the homestretch. Out west, Salisbury, Taft, and Avon Old Farms are solidly in playoff position. Nobles and Salisbury look to be solid #1 seeds; the #2-3 seeds will likely not be decided until the final weekend.

In both conferences, the fourth -- and final -- seed is still definitely up for grabs. Exeter holds a slight lead over Andover for the final eastern playoff spot, while Westminster occupies the final playoff berth in the west and will look to hold off Hotchkiss and South Kent.

Here is what the standings look like (top eight teams listed):

East
1. Nobles (4)
2. Cushing (7)
3. Belmont Hill (7)
4. Exeter (13)
5. Andover (15)
6. St. Seb's (19)
7. Lawrence (23)
8. Tilton (24)

West
1. Salisbury (3)
2. Taft (8)
3. Avon (8)
4. Westminster (13)
5. Hotchkiss (18)
6. South Kent (18)
7. Winchendon (20)
8. Choate (21)


While we don't want to focus too much on numbers -- the games are decided on the ice, after all -- there are some interesting stories to be told by looking at the strengths of schedule of the different schools. While certain teams are perennially tough, for many teams in prep hockey, their chance for success depends on a number of factors that are impossible to sort out before the season starts. So, it is difficult to know with any degree of certainty -- in advance -- whether any particular team is going to face a hard or easy schedule before the season gets rolling.

But, at this point in the season, we can see which teams have faced a tougher road so far. We have been tracking every team's strength of schedule as measured by the average winning percentages of its opponents. Of the top teams in the playoff hunt, Westminster, Taft, Avon, South Kent, Hotchkiss, Salisbury, and Winchendon all have strengths of schedule below .500. In other words, their opponents have, on average, records of under .500. In the east, the same is true for Cushing, Exeter, and Lawrence. Conversely, Belmont Hill, Nobles, and Andover have played tough schedules, with strengths of schedule above .500. The same is true for Choate in the west.

And what exactly constitutes a "tough schedule?" Perhaps it's worth keeping in mind that, given that conference games make up the bulk of most teams' schedules, a sub-.500 team in one conference may be better than an over-.500 team in another. So tough schedule becomes a relative term, dependent to some degree on the overall strength of a particular conference.  

What does all this ultimately mean? Not much, given the way playoff criteria are set up. And just because teams have played relatively weak schedules does not make them undeserving of a playoff bid. If they win all those games, more power to them. Still, it's revealing to see how schedule strengths correlate with playoff positions and season success. -- S.S.      



2/28/06 Update

The schedule for tomorrow has been updated below, along with the times and brackets for this weekend.

2/27/06

Calling All Blackberries, Treos, Razors – and Plain Old Cell Phones

For this year’s quarterfinals, we’re going to do what we did last season, and post updates at the end of every period of every game, both Div. I and Div. II, both boys and girls.

We’re looking for volunteers to phone in scores at the end of each period and, if possible, include goal scorers, shots on goal, etc. This worked really well last year and, in pretty close to real time, we were able to bring updates to people across the country and around the world.

If you’re willing to help out, please email cwarner@ushr.com and let us know which game you will be attending.

With your help, we can pull this project off again. It should be fun.

 

2/26/06  Updated

Wednesday's Quarterfinal Matchups 

Div. I
#1 Berkshire vs. #8 Westminster -- 3:00 at Berkshire
#2 Pomfret vs. #7 Loomis -- 3:15 at Pomfret
#3 Nobles vs. #6 Andover -- 3:30 at Nobles
#4 Lawrence vs. #5 Choate -- 6:00 at Lawrence

Div. II
#1 Brewster vs. #8 Brooks -- 4:00 at Brewster
#2 Greenwich vs. #7 Kents Hill -- 3:30 at Dexter
#3 Rivers vs. #6 St. George's -- 4:00 at Rivers
#4 Hebron vs. #5 Kingswood -- 4:15 at Exeter

Sat. March 4 -- Semifinals
at Southfield School; Brookline, Mass.

Div. II 
10:00 am -- 1/8 winner vs. 4/5 winner
12:00 pm -- 3/6 winner vs. 2/7 winner

Div. I
2:00 pm -- 1/8 winner vs. 4/5 winner
4:00 pm -- 3/6 winner vs. 2/7 winner

Sun. March 5 -- Finals
at Southfield School; Brookline, Mass.

10:30 am -- Div. II Championship Game
12:30 pm - Div. I Title Game

 

 

The Regular Season Winds Down

A week from now, the regular season will be over and we'll know the playoff pairings. Going into the final week, it looks like there are nine teams with a strong chance to make the playoffs in Div. I. They are, in alphabetical order, Andover, Berkshire, Choate, Hotchkiss, Lawrence, Loomis, Nobles, Pomfret, and Taft. Likely to fall a little short are Westminster and Cushing. In Div. II, the eight look to be Brewster, Brooks, GDA, Greenwich Academy, Groton, Gunnery, Hebron, and Kents Hill. Having good years in Div. II, but probably not good enough to make the postseason are Kingswood-Oxford, Middlesex, Proctor, and Rivers. The latter progam is in its second year.  

The final week of the regular season looks like this:

Mon. Feb. 20, 2006:
N.E. Falcons @ Pomfret, 8:00

Tue. Feb. 21, 2006:
Kingswood-Oxford @ Taft, 4:30
Vermont Academy @ KUA, 4:30

Wed. Feb. 22, 2006:
Berkshire @ Taft, 2:30
Deerfield @ Williston-Northampton, 2:30
Brooks @ St. Mark's, 3:00
New Hampton @ KUA, 3:00
Middlesex @ BB&N, 3:15
Tabor @ Cushing, 3:15
Exeter @ Hebron, 3:30
Choate @ Hotchkiss, 3:30
Thayer @ Groton, 3:30
Millbrook @ Rye CD, 3:30
NMH @ Loomis-Chaffee, 4:00
St. Paul’s vs. St. George’s, 4:00 (at Groton School)
Berwick @ Pingree, 4:00
Greenwich @ Westminster, 4:30
Andover @ Holderness, 4:30
Milton @ Pomfret, 4:30
Kent's Hill @ Proctor, 4:30
Rivers @ Lawrence, 5:15
Canterbury @ Portsmouth Abbey, 5:00
Noble & Greenough @ Governor Dummer, 5:30
New England Coyotes @ Kent, 6:00

Thurs. Feb. 23, 2006:
Thayer @ St. Mark’s, 5:00

Fri. Feb. 24, 2006:
Southfield @ Rivers, 3:00
Thayer @ Tabor, 4:45
East Coast Wizards @ Pomfret, 7:00
Kingswood-Oxford @ Kents Hill, 8:00

Sat. Feb. 25, 2006:
Kingswood-Oxford @ Hebron, 1:00
Lebanon High School @ Proctor, 1:30
NMH @ Tabor, 1:30
Rivers @ Tilton, 2:00
Noble & Greenough @ Milton, 2:00
Exeter @ Andover, 2:00
Taft @ Hotchkiss, 2:30
Loomis-Chaffee @ Deerfield, 3:00
Portsmouth Abbey @ Greenwich Academy, 3:00
Groton @ St. Mark's, 3:45
KUA @ Williston, 3:45
Brooks @ Governor Dummer, 4:00
New Hampton @ Kent’s Hill, 4:00
St. Paul's @ Lawrence, 4:00
BB&N @ Thayer, 4:15
Conn. Northern Lights @ Canterbury, 4:45
Holderness @ Brewster, 5:00
Cushing @ Choate, 6:00
Westminster @ Kent, 6:30

 

This Week's Games

Mon. Feb. 13, 2006:
Kent @ Taft, 5:00
Brooks @ Noble & Greenough, 5:00

Wed. Feb. 15, 2006:
Thayer @ Kingswood-Oxford, 2:00
Taft @ Westminster, 2:30
Canterbury @ Millbrook, 2:30
Kent @ Hotchkiss, 2:30
Holderness @ Vermont Academy, 2:30
KUA @ Tilton, 2:30
NMH @ Williston, 2:30
Pomfret @ St. Mark's, 2:45
Cushing @ Deerfield, 2:45
Groton @ Brooks, 3:00
Exeter @ New Hampton, 3:00
Middlesex @ Lawrence, 3:30
Pingree @ Dana Hall, 3:45
St. Paul's @ BB&N, 4:00
Brunswick @ Winsor, 4:00
Kent’s Hill @ Brewster, 4:00
Choate @ Berkshire, 4:00
Andover @ Noble & Greenough, 4:30
Greenwich @ Gunnery, 4:30
Hebron @ Proctor, 4:30
St. George's @ Milton, 5:00
Loomis @ Springfield Pics, 5:00
Rivers @ GDA, 5:45

Thurs. Feb. 16, 2006:
Choate @ Kingswood-Oxford, 5:00

Fri. Feb. 17, 2006:
Holderness @ New Hampton, 2:00
Greenwich vs. Brewster, 4:15  (@ Rye CD)
Brooks @ Middlesex, 5:00
Milton @ Andover, 5:00
Tabor @ St. Mark's, 5:30
Berwick @ Newton CD, 5:00
Southfield @ Winsor, 5:15
Concord High School @ Proctor, 6:30

Sat. Feb. 18, 2006:
Hanover HS @ Holderness, 1:15
BB&N @ St. Mark's, 1:30
Brewster @ Gunnery, 1:30
Northfield Mt. Hermon @ Exeter, 1:30
Lawrence @ Governor Dummer, 2:00
Thayer @ Kent’s Hill, 2:00
Cushing @ Pomfret, 2:15
Kent @ Kingswood-Oxford, 2:30
Tilton @ Vermont Academy, 2:45
Hotchkiss @ Deerfield, 3:30
St. Paul's @ Noble & Greenough, 3:30
Choate @ Taft, 4:00
Williston @ Loomis, 4:00
Proctor @ Pingree, 4:30
Tabor @ New Hampton, 4:30

Mon. Feb. 20, 2006:
N.E. Falcons @ Pomfret, 8:00

Tue. Feb. 21, 2006:
Kingswood-Oxford @ Taft, 4:30
Vermont Academy @ KUA, 4:30

2/8/06

Chessare, Gallagher Lead St. Mark's

Milton, Mass. -- Freshman forward Caroline Chessare scored the game winner and junior goaltender Megan Gallager kicked out 20 shots to lead St. Mark's to a 3-1 win over Milton Academy here today.

On the winning goal, which came at the 9:10 mark of the third period, senior Rachel Lindmark drove to the net and Chessare knocked home the rebound, giving St. Mark's a 2-1 lead.

Freshman Casey Pickett added an empty-netter with 14 seconds left for the final 3-1 margin of victory.

Early on, it looked like St. Mark's might win this one handily, as they dominated the first period, but were unable to score on Milton junior goalie Amanda Rothschild, who kept the Mustangs in the game.

Between periods, Milton woke up and came out for the second with some jam, getting a couple of good scoring opportunities early.

However, it was St. Mark's who scored first, as Lindmark knocked home a pass from the corner that seemed to deflect off a skate or stick before eluding Rothschild at the 10:12 mark. Shannon Coffey and Merly Poulin were awarded assists on the goal.

At the buzzer, Poulin was given a major and a game DQ for a hit from behind, giving Milton a four-minute power play to start the third.

Milton was unable to generate much offense, as St. Mark's killed the penalty aggressively.

However, 34 seconds after killing off the penalty, St. Mark's was whistled for another penalty. And on this one, Milton cashed in, tying the game up at 1-1 when Meredith Frechette-Moulter knocked home the rebound Hillary McNamara shot at the 5:15 mark.

Less than four minutes later St. Mark's would strike for the winning goal.

Afterward, St. Mark's head coach Marissa Halligan said, "We played really well shorthanded and capitalized on our chances. Megan played really well between the pipes."

Down the hall, Milton head coach Wendy Holden said she felt her team recovered well from a poor first period.

"By the third period, it really looked like a game. I would have liked to have seen the whole game like that. It also would have been nice to take advantage of the (four minute) power play."

2/6/06

This Week's Games

Wed. Feb. 08, 2006:
Exeter @ Kimball Union, 1:30
Kent @ Canterbury, 2:00
Millbrook @ Gunnery, 2:30
Cushing @ Lawrence, 3:00
Williston @ Choate, 3:00
Dana Hall @ Thayer, 3:10
Proctor @ Berwick, 3:15
Berkshire @ Pomfret, 3:30
St. George's @ BB&N, 3:30
Noble & Greenough @ Groton, 3:30
Wyoming Seminary @ Hill, 4:00
Hotchkiss @ Loomis, 4:00
Winsor @ Pingree, 4:00
St. Paul’s @ Middlesex, 4:00
Brewster @ Rivers, 4:10
Deerfield @ Westminster, 4:30
Holderness @ Brooks, 4:30
Tabor @ Andover, 4:30
NMH @ Kingswood-Oxford, 4:30
St. Mark's @ Milton, 5:15
Taft @ Greenwich, 5:15 
Kents Hill @ New Hampton, 6:00

Fri. Feb. 10, 2006:
Thayer @ St. Mark's, 3:30
Pingree @ Newton CD, 3:45
Nichols @ Cushing, 4:00
NYA @ Hebron, 4:45
Governor Dummer @ Exeter, 4:45
Rivers @ Winsor, 5:15
Andover @ Brewster, 5:30
BB&N @ Noble & Greenough, 6:00
Lawrenceville @ Greenwich, 6:30

Sat. Feb. 11, 2006:
Nichols @ Noble & Greenough, 12:00
Greenwich @ Northfield Mt. Hermon, 1:00
Proctor @ Holderness, 1:30
Berwick @ KUA, 1:30
Lawrence @ Thayer, 1:45
St. Mark's @ Rivers, 2:00
Tabor @ Pomfret, 2:15
Deerfield @ Berkshire, 2:15
Choate @ Loomis, 2:30
GDA @ St. Paul’s, 2:30
Kingswood-Oxford @ Gunnery, 2:30
Hotchkiss @ Taft, 2:30
Middlesex @ Milton, 2:30
Brooks @ St. George's, 2:45
Hebron @ Brewster, 3:30
Lawrenceville @ Canterbury, 4:00
New Hampton @ Vermont Academy, 4:00
Exeter @ Kent's Hill, 4:30
Shady Side Academy @ Princeton DS, 5:15
Millbrook @ Kent, 7:30

Sun. Feb. 12, 2006:
Hill @ Canterbury, 11:00 am

Mon. Feb. 13, 2006:
Kents Hill @ Hebron, 4:00
Kent @ Taft, 5:00
Brooks @ Noble & Greenough, 5:00

 

This Week's Games

Wed. Feb. 1, 2006:
Hotchkiss @ Berkshire, 2:00
Westminster @ Pomfret, 2:30
Proctor @ Vermont Academy, 2:30
Andover @ Exeter, 2:45
Taft @ Williston-Northampton, 3:00
Brewster @ Cushing, 3:00
Thayer @ Brooks, 3:00
Loomis @ Gunnery, 3:00
St. Paul’s @ St. Mark's, 3:15
Millbrook @ Kingswood-Oxford, 3:30
Noble & Greenough @ St. George's, 4:00
Berwick @ Tilton, 4:00
New Hampton @ Southfield, 4:00
Kents Hill vs. KUA (@ Exeter), 4:15
Springfield Pics @ Deerfield, 4:30
Portsmouth Abbey @ Pingree, 4:30
NMH @ Choate, 4:30
Greenwich @ Kent, 4:30
Lawrence @ Milton, 4:30
Wyoming Seminary @ Lawrenceville, 4:30
Governor Dummer @ BB&N, 4:45
Holderness @ Hebron, 4:45
Groton @ Middlesex, 5:30
Conn. Stars @ Canterbury, 6:00

Fri. Feb. 3, 2006:
Berkshire @ Cushing, 2:00
Dana Hall @ Berwick, 4:00
NAHA @ Exeter, 4:30
Hebron @ Middlesex, 4:30
BB&N @ Pingree, 5:00
Lawrence @ Tabor, 6:30
Dover U-16 @ Proctor, 6:30

Sat. Feb. 4, 2006:
Greenwich vs. Southfield, 10:30 am (@ Middlebury College)
Rivers @ Milton, 12:00
Brooks @ Noble & Greenough, 2:00
Kimball Union @ Proctor, 2:00
Thayer @ Exeter, 2:00
Vermont Academy @ NMH, 2:30
Lawrenceville @ Hill School, 4:00
Kents Hill @ Holderness, 4:00
Winsor @ Berwick, 5:30
New Hampton @ Tilton, 6:00
Springfield Pics @ Tabor, 6:00
NCCC @ Northwood, 7:00