1/11/05
Playoff Projections
It may still be early but it’s also late enough so that there are some things to be looking at.
As you may know, there are three equally-weighted criteria that go into the formula that determines playoff position. NEPSIHA and Div. I winning percentages are easy to see and easily calculated. But the third criterion is the one that I believe will make the difference this year – that is, strength of schedule and how well a team does in its games against better teams. (In mathematical terms, percentage of games played against Div. I teams with a winning percentage of50% or better times winning percentage in such games.) It’s that third criterion that will make it difficult for a team like Canterbury to sneak into the playoff picture – even if they continue to win. Right now, Canterbury is winning 78% of their NEPSIHA and Div. I games, but it has played very few games against teams with winning records and it is only .500 in those games. Taft, by contrast, has "only" a 72% winning percentage, but it has played 86% of its games against winning teams and has won two-thirds of those games. That strength of schedule will serve Taft well as the season moves on, assuming, of course, that they continue to win. The Rhinos certainly made a statement this week.
In the east, where the playoff race will be even closer, one difference maker may be Andover's schedule. They have the toughest remaining schedule of any team currently in contention. If they win consistently, they will be in a position to jump over other teams and also get a better seeding because of strength of schedule.
One wild card in all of this is that while some teams do not currently have a winning percentage, they may, by the end of the season, have one. If St. Seb’s and Milton, for example, improve and get to .500, that will help a number of teams that were lucky enough to play them during their struggles.
As we said, it’s still early in he projecting game. Things will be clearer around the beginning of February, both in terms of positioning and who will need to do what in order to make the playoffs. For now, though, keep an eye on that third criterion. When it comes to prep hockey, some wins are more valuable than others.
